Written by Elaine Penhaul…
Last week, I had the privilege of attending the eXp UK conference where I listened to renowned behavioural economist Roger Martin-Fagg speak about the future of the UK housing market. His forecast? A property boom that could extend well into 2032.
Why a Boom?
Martin-Fagg’s optimism stems from several compelling economic indicators. First, the UK is currently experiencing a notable labour shortage. This imbalance is pushing wages up—he projects annual wage growth of 4–5% over the coming years. Historically, wage growth of this magnitude often correlates with a rise in house prices, as higher earning power improves affordability and buyer confidence.
Second, there’s a demographic factor at play: the number of people aged 30–39—the prime first-time buyer and upgrader cohort—is set to peak over the next six years. This surge in demand, particularly if supply remains constrained, is a classic driver of upward price pressure.
Finally, there’s the anticipated relaxation of mortgage lending rules. If access to credit becomes easier, more buyers will be able to enter the market, which will again stimulate demand—and competition.
Different Perspectives
Over coffee, I spoke with property commentator Russell Quirk. Interestingly, while he doesn’t entirely agree with Martin-Fagg’s rationale, he does foresee a mini-boom—perhaps driven more by sentiment and short-term adjustments than long-term economic fundamentals.
This divergence of opinion highlights what we in property know too well: forecasting the market is part science, part art.
The Middle East Factor: A Wild Card
While the UK domestic indicators may point to growth, we can’t ignore the global context—especially the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Just this weekend, the US made a surprising entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and is now attempting to broker a peace deal. While diplomacy is welcome, the geopolitical uncertainty it reflects is a red flag for global markets.
Why does this matter for UK property?
Because geopolitics affects energy prices, investor confidence, and economic stability. Iran produces only 3% of the world’s oil, but it’s the second largest supplier of natural gas. Europe, still grappling with the energy fallout from sanctions on Russia, is highly dependent on Middle Eastern gas imports.
If energy prices rise, inflation could follow—yet again. And inflation puts upward pressure on interest rates, which could dampen buyer appetite, stall mortgage approvals, and curtail affordability.
Older buyers and sellers—many of whom make up our client base—remember the economic aftershocks of past conflicts vividly: Operation Desert Storm, 9/11, the 2008 crash. Their caution is understandable. Their memories are long.
What We’re Seeing on the Ground
Across the UK, agents are reporting an early onset of the usual summer slowdown. Viewings are down. Progressions are sluggish. There’s a noticeable imbalance between the number of homes for sale and the number of active, motivated buyers.
Geopolitical uncertainty only deepens this caution. If buyers begin to sit on their hands, waiting to “see what happens,” that uncertainty could translate into market paralysis.
Strategic Action for Sellers and Agents
This isn’t a time for guesswork or passive marketing. Sellers need strategy. Agents need urgency. And both must lean into realism.
Here’s what that looks like:
- Price with Precision: Sellers must be guided by hard data, not hopeful comparisons. Overpricing in this market will kill momentum.
- Market Aggressively: Gone are the days when a Rightmove listing alone would do the job. Social media, email campaigns, targeted buyer outreach—these aren’t optional extras, they’re the baseline.
- Choose Agents Who Sell, Not Just List: In a quieter market, you need negotiators, not order-takers. Look for agents with a clear plan, not just a For Sale board.
What Comes Next?
The truth is, no one knows for sure. We may be heading into a sustained boom fuelled by wage growth, demographic shifts, and greater access to finance. Or we may be facing a short-term uplift followed by turbulence, driven by external global shocks.
Either way, success in this market will come to those who adapt quickly, act decisively, and don’t wait for perfect clarity.
One thing is certain: Sitting still is not a strategy.
For your staging needs, get in touch with our team! [email protected] / 01332 987740
